How AI can save our humanity by Kai-Fu Lee
00:12
I'm
going to talk about how AI and mankind can coexist, but first, we have to
rethink about our human values. So let me first make a confession about my
errors in my values.
00:12
我將會談談人工智慧和人類如何能夠共存，
但首先，我們需要重新思考人類價值觀。 所以首先讓我坦白我價值觀中曾有的錯誤。
00:25
It
was 11 o'clock, December 16, 1991. I was about to become a father for the first
time. My wife, Shen-Ling, lay in the hospital bed going through a very
difficult 12-hour labor. I sat by her bedside but looked anxiously at my watch,
and I knew something that she didn't. I knew that if in one hour, our child
didn't come, I was going to leave her there and go back to work and make a
presentation about AI to my boss, Apple's CEO. Fortunately, my daughter was
born at 11:30 --
00:25
那是1991年12月16日11點。 我即將首次成為父親。 我的妻子，先鈴，躺在病床上 經歷著一段艱辛並為時12小時的分娩。
我坐在床邊 但卻焦慮地望著我的手錶， 而我知道一些她不知道的事。 我知道如果在一小時內， 我們的孩子還未出生， 我將要將她留在那裡 趕去上班 並向我的老闆，蘋果的首席執行官
做一個有關人工智慧的報告。 幸運的是，我的女兒在11:30出生了--
01:07 (Laughter)
01:07（笑聲）
01:09 (Applause)
01:09（掌聲）
01:11
sparing
me from doing the unthinkable, and to this day, I am so sorry for letting my
work ethic take precedence over love for my family.
01:11
讓我免做荒唐事， 而一直到今天，我非常慚愧曾經
把工作擺在家庭前面。
01:22 (Applause)
01:28
My
AI talk, however, went off brilliantly.
01:28
但是，我做的人工智慧報告非常成功。
01:30 (Laughter)
01:33
Apple
loved my work and decided to announce it at TED1992, 26 years ago on this very
stage. I thought I had made one of the biggest, most important discoveries in
AI, and so did the "Wall Street Journal" on the following day.
01:33
蘋果喜歡我的工作成果 並決定在TED1992會議上將其宣佈， 26年前就在這個舞臺上。 我以為我完成了人工智慧領域
一個最重大的發現， 第二天《華爾街日報》也是這麼認為。
01:51
But
as far as discoveries went, it turned out, I didn't discover India, or America.
Perhaps I discovered a little island off of Portugal. But the AI era of
discovery continued, and more scientists poured their souls into it. About 10
years ago, the grand AI discovery was made by three North American scientists,
and it's known as deep learning.
01:51
但隨著越來越多的發現， 結果是，
我並沒有發現印度或是美洲。 或許我發現的是葡萄牙附近的一個小島。 但是人工智慧的發現時代持續了下去， 而越來越多的科學家全心全意投入其中。 大約10年前，三名北美科學家 做出了重大的人工智慧發現， 那就是深度學習。
02:17
Deep
learning is a technology that can take a huge amount of data within one single
domain and learn to predict or decide at superhuman accuracy. For example, if
we show the deep learning network a massive number of food photos, it can
recognize food such as hot dog or no hot dog.
02:17
深度學習是一個能利用海量資料
在單一領域中 學會做超高精確度的預測或決策的技術。 例如，如果我們向深度學習網路顯示 海量的食物照片， 它可以辨認出食物， 比如熱狗或不是熱狗。
02:41
Or
if we show it many pictures and videos and sensor data from driving on the
highway, it can actually drive a car as well as a human being on the highway.
And what if we showed this deep learning network all the speeches made by
President Trump? Then this artificially intelligent President Trump, actually
the network --
02:41
02:41
若如果我們向它顯示許多 在高速公路上開車的照片、
視頻和傳感資料， 它其實可以把車開得像人一樣好 行駛在高速公路上。 若我們向這深度學習網路顯示 特朗普總統發表過的所有演講呢？ 那麼這個人工智慧的特朗普總統，
其實是該網路 --
03:07 (Laughter)
03:09 can
--
03:09 可以 --
03:10 (Applause)
03:14 You
like double oxymorons, huh?
03:14 你們喜歡一語雙關的話，對吧？
03:17 (Laughter)
03:21 (Applause)
03:27
So
this network, if given the request to make a speech about AI, he, or it, might
say --
03:27
03:27
所以此網路，若被要求發表一場
關於人工智慧的演講， 他，或它，或許會說
03:36
(Recording)
Donald Trump: It's a great thing to build a better world with artificial
intelligence.
（錄音）特朗普：運用人工智慧來建造
一個更完美的世界是件大好事。
03:41
Kai-Fu
Lee: And maybe in another language?
李開複：或許用另一種語言來說？
03:43
DT:
(Speaking Chinese)
特朗普（講中文）：人工智慧正在改變世界
03:45 (Laughter)
03:46
KFL:
You didn't know he knew Chinese, did you?
03:46
你們不知道他會說中文吧？
03:50
So
deep learning has become the core in the era of AI discovery, and that's led by
the US. But we're now in the era of implementation, where what really matters
is execution, product quality, speed and data. And that's where China comes in.
Chinese entrepreneurs, who I fund as a venture capitalist, are incredible
workers, amazing work ethic. My example in the delivery room is nothing
compared to how hard people work in China. As an example, one startup tried to
claim work-life balance: "Come work for us because we are 996." And
what does that mean? It means the work hours of 9am to 9pm, six days a week.
That's contrasted with other startups that do 997.
03:50
所以深度學習已成為人工智慧發現時代的核心，
並由美國領導著。 但我們現在身處實踐時代， 真正關鍵的是執行力、產品品質、速度和資料。 這就是中國上場的時候了。 中國企業家， 我作為風險投資人提供他們資本，
他們是非凡的實幹者， 工作拼命。 我在產房的例子與中國人的工作賣力程度 相比根本不算什麼。 例如，有個創業公司聲稱能工作生活平衡： “加入我們吧，因為我們是996。” 那是什麼意思？ 那是指工作時間從上午9點至晚上9點、 每週六天。 這與其他實施997的創業公司形成對比。
04:39
And
the Chinese product quality has consistently gone up in the past decade, and
that's because of a fiercely competitive environment. In Silicon Valley,
entrepreneurs compete in a very gentlemanly fashion, sort of like in old wars
in which each side took turns to fire at each other.
04:39
中國產品的品質在 過去十年中持續提升，
這歸功於極其激烈的競爭環境。 在矽谷，企業家用非常紳士的方式來競爭， 有點像是舊時的戰爭 雙方輪流向對方開火。
04:59 (Laughter)
05:00
But
in the Chinese environment, it's truly a gladiatorial fight to the death. In
such a brutal environment, entrepreneurs learn to grow very rapidly, they learn
to make their products better at lightning speed, and they learn to hone their
business models until they're impregnable. As a result, great Chinese products
like WeChat and Weibo are arguably better than the equivalent American products
from Facebook and Twitter.
05:00
但在中國的環境裡， 它真的是一場不死不休的角鬥士之戰。
在如此殘酷的環境裡， 企業家學會如何迅速成長， 他們學會如何雷厲風行地改進產品， 他們學會如何完善其商業模式 直至堅不可摧。 結果是，優秀的中國產品，如微信和微博
可以說比臉書和推特等同類美國產品更好。 中國市場歡迎這種變化， 並進一步加速變化和轉型。
05:31
And
the Chinese market embraces this change and accelerated change and paradigm
shifts. As an example, if any of you go to China, you will see it's almost
cashless and credit card-less, because that thing that we all talk about,
mobile payment, has become the reality in China. In the last year, 18.8
trillion US dollars were transacted on mobile internet, and that's because of
very robust technologies built behind it. It's even bigger than the China GDP.
And this technology, you can say, how can it be bigger than the GDP? Because it
includes all transactions: wholesale, channels, retail, online, offline, going
into a shopping mall or going into a farmers market like this. The technology
is used by 700 million people to pay each other, not just merchants, so it's
peer to peer, and it's almost transaction-fee-free. And it's instantaneous, and
it's used everywhere. And finally, the China market is enormous. This market is
large, which helps give entrepreneurs more users, more revenue, more
investment, but most importantly, it gives the entrepreneurs a chance to
collect a huge amount of data which becomes rocket fuel for the AI engine. So
as a result, the Chinese AI companies have leaped ahead so that today, the most
valuable companies in computer vision, speech recognition, speech synthesis,
machine translation and drones are all Chinese companies.
05:37
比如說，如果你們中任何人去中國，
你將會看到它幾乎是無現金和無信用卡社會， 因為我們都在討論的那件事，移動支付， 在中國已成為現實。 在過去一年， 18.8萬億美金通過移動網路完成交易，
而這歸功於支撐其項背的強勁科技。 它甚至大過中國的國內生產總值。 而此技術，你可以說， 它怎麼會大過國內生產總值？ 這是因為它包括了所有交易： 批發、管道、零售、網上、離線，
去大商場或去這樣的農貿市場。 這項技術被7億人用來互相支付， 不僅局限于商家， 所以它是點對點的， 而它幾乎是無手續費的。
它是即時的， 被到處使用。 最後一點，中國市場十分巨大。 市場龐大， 幫助了企業家獲得更多用戶、 更高收入、更多投資， 但最重要的， 它給了企業家一個收集海量資料的機會
這成為了人工智慧引擎的燃料。 結果，中國人工智慧公司已往前飛躍， 所以如今，在電腦視覺、語音辨識、 語音合成、機器翻譯和無人機領域中 最具價值的公司都是中國公司。
所以，隨著美國引領發現時代 和中國引領實踐時代， 我們正處於一個偉大時代 兩個超級大國的雙聯引擎正合作共進 驅動我們人類從未見過的 最迅速的科技革命。
07:11
So
with the US leading the era of discovery and China leading the era of
implementation, we are now in an amazing age where the dual engine of the two
superpowers are working together to drive the fastest revolution in technology
that we have ever seen as humans. And this will bring tremendous wealth,
unprecedented wealth: 16 trillion dollars, according to PwC, in terms of added
GDP to the worldwide GDP by 2030. It will also bring immense challenges in
terms of potential job replacements. Whereas in the Industrial Age it created
more jobs because craftsman jobs were being decomposed into jobs in the
assembly line, so more jobs were created. But AI completely replaces the
individual jobs in the assembly line with robots. And it's not just in
factories, but truckers, drivers and even jobs like telesales, customer service
and hematologists as well as radiologists over the next 15 years are going to
be gradually replaced by artificial intelligence. And only the creative jobs --
07:32
這將會帶來極大的財富、 前所未有的財富：
據普華永道估計，到2030年， 人工智慧將帶來16萬億美元的全球GDP增長 它也將帶來巨大挑戰 在可能出現的失業再就業問題上。 在工業革命時代， 它創造了更多工作 因為手工工匠的工作被分解成
生產線上的各種工作， 所以創造了更多工作。 但是人工智慧讓流水線上的個體工作 完全被機器人取代。 這不僅發生在工廠裡， 而且貨車司機、駕駛員 甚至於像是電話銷售、客服、
血液科和放射科醫生的工作， 在未來的15年內 都將慢慢被人工智慧取代。 而只有創造性工作--
08:32 (Laughter)
08:34
I
have to make myself safe, right? Really, the creative jobs are the ones that
are protected, because AI can optimize but not create.
我必須保護我自己，對吧？ 真的，創造性工作是有保障的工作，
因為人工智慧可以優化但不能創造。
08:45
But
what's more serious than the loss of jobs is the loss of meaning, because the
work ethic in the Industrial Age has brainwashed us into thinking that work is
the reason we exist, that work defined the meaning of our lives. And I was a
prime and willing victim to that type of workaholic thinking. I worked
incredibly hard. That's why I almost left my wife in the delivery room, that's
why I worked 996 alongside my entrepreneurs. And that obsession that I had with
work ended abruptly a few years ago when I was diagnosed with fourth stage
lymphoma. The PET scan here shows over 20 malignant tumors jumping out like
fireballs, melting away my ambition. But more importantly, it helped me
reexamine my life. Knowing that I may only have a few months to live caused me
to see how foolish it was for me to base my entire self-worth on how hard I
worked and the accomplishments from hard work. My priorities were completely
out of order. I neglected my family. My father had passed away, and I never had
a chance to tell him I loved him. My mother had dementia and no longer
recognized me, and my children had grown up.
08:45
但比失去工作更嚴重的是失去意義，
因為工業革命時代的工作倫理 已讓我們洗腦相信工作賦予我們存在的理由， 工作賦予我們生活的意義。 而我就是個典型並自願接受 那種工作狂思想的受害者。 我工作異常努力。
那就是為什麼我幾乎將我的妻子獨自留在產房內， 那就是為什麼我996地與企業家們工作。 我對工作的癡迷在幾年前戛然而止
因為我被確診患上 第四期淋巴瘤。 這個PET掃描顯示二十多個惡性腫瘤 如火球般噴湧而出， 把我的壯志雄心付之一炬。
但更重要的是， 它幫我重新審視我的人生。 知道我可能只剩下幾個月的生命 令我看清 把自我價值完全建立在 工作強度和工作成就上是多麼愚蠢。 我生活中的優先順序完全本末倒置。
我疏於關心家庭。 我的父親過世了， 我從沒機會告訴他我愛他。 我的母親失智了，再也認不出我， 我的孩子們都已長大成人。
10:16
During
my chemotherapy, I read a book by Bronnie Ware who talked about dying wishes
and regrets of the people in the deathbed. She found that facing death, nobody
regretted that they didn't work hard enough in this life. They only regretted
that they didn't spend enough time with their loved ones and that they didn't
spread their love.
10:16
在我化療期間， 我讀了邦妮·韋爾的一本書
寫的是人們瀕死時的心願和懊悔。 她發現面對死亡時， 沒人遺憾自己工作得不夠努力。 他們只後悔自己沒花更多時間 與所愛之人相伴相守， 後悔沒有傳遞自己的愛。
10:42 So
I am fortunately today in remission.
10:42 值得慶倖的是，我的病情現在有所緩解
10:46 (Applause)
10:53
So
I can be back at TED again to share with you that I have changed my ways. I now
only work 965 -- occasionally 996, but usually 965. I moved closer to my
mother, my wife usually travels with me, and when my kids have vacation, if
they don't come home, I go to them. So it's a new form of life that helped me
recognize how important it is that love is for me, and facing death helped me
change my life, but it also helped me see a new way of how AI should impact
mankind and work and coexist with mankind, that really, AI is taking away a lot
of routine jobs, but routine jobs are not what we're about.
10:53
所以我可以重回TED舞臺 和你們分享我的改變。 我如今只工作965 -- 偶爾996，但通常965。 我搬到離母親更近的住所， 我妻子通常與我相伴旅行，
當我的孩子們休假時， 若他們不回家，我會去看他們。 這種新生活方式幫我認清 愛對我來說是多麼重要， 瀕死經歷改變了我的生活， 而且讓我重新審視 人工智慧應如何影響人類
影響工作，與人共存， 確實，人工智慧正帶走很多重複性工作， 但我們並非因為擅長重複性工作而為人。
11:44
Why
we exist is love. When we hold our newborn baby, love at first sight, or when
we help someone in need, humans are uniquely able to give and receive love, and
that's what differentiates us from AI.
11:44
我們存在的理由是愛。 當我們懷抱新生兒，
當我們一見鍾情， 當我們助人於難， 唯獨人類才能愛與被愛， 愛使我們有別於人工智慧。
12:00
Despite
what science fiction may portray, I can responsibly tell you that AI has no
love. When AlphaGo defeated the world champion Ke Jie, while Ke Jie was crying
and loving the game of go, AlphaGo felt no happiness from winning and certainly
no desire to hug a loved one.
12:00
無論科幻電影如何描述， 我可以負責任地告訴你，
人工智慧程式沒有愛的能力。 當阿法狗圍棋打敗世界冠軍柯潔時， 柯潔哭著並愛著圍棋， 但阿法狗無法從勝利中感受到喜悅， 也不會渴望擁抱一個心愛的人。
12:23
So
how do we differentiate ourselves as humans in the age of AI? We talked about
the axis of creativity, and certainly that is one possibility, and now we
introduce a new axis that we can call compassion, love, or empathy. Those are
things that AI cannot do. So as AI takes away the routine jobs, I like to think
we can, we should and we must create jobs of compassion. You might ask how many
of those there are, but I would ask you: Do you not think that we are going to
need a lot of social workers to help us make this transition? Do you not think
we need a lot of compassionate caregivers to give more medical care to more
people? Do you not think we're going to need 10 times more teachers to help our
children find their way to survive and thrive in this brave new world? And with
all the newfound wealth, should we not also make labors of love into careers
and let elderly accompaniment or homeschooling become careers also?
12:23
那我們如何在人工智慧時代中
將自己作為人類區分出來？ 我們談到過創造性維度， 那當然是一個可能性， 現在我們要介紹一個新維度， 稱之為同情心、愛或同理心。 那些都是人工智慧做不到的事。 當人工智慧帶走重複性工作時，
我想我們可以、應該而且必須創造關愛型工作。 你或許會問那種工作到底有多少？ 但我想問問你： 你不認為我們將需要許多社工 來幫助我們平穩過渡嗎？ 你不認為我們需要許多富有同情心的看護
來為更多人提供更多醫療護理嗎？ 你不認為我們將需要多10倍的老師 來幫助孩子們尋找 在這個勇敢新世界裡的生存和成長之道嗎？
有了新獲得的財富， 我們不應該創造以人性關愛為本的工作 把老人護工或在家教育變成工作種類嗎？
13:30 (Applause)
13:36
This
graph is surely not perfect, but it points at four ways that we can work with
AI. AI will come and take away the routine jobs and in due time, we will be
thankful. AI will become great tools for the creatives so that scientists,
artists, musicians and writers can be even more creative. AI will work with
humans as analytical tools that humans can wrap their warmth around for the
high-compassion jobs. And we can always differentiate ourselves with the
uniquely capable jobs that are both compassionate and creative, using and
leveraging our irreplaceable brains and hearts. So there you have it: a
blueprint of coexistence for humans and AI.
13:36
這個圖表不甚完美， 但展示了四種我們與人工智慧共事的方式。
人工智慧將代替我們承擔重複性工作， 到時候我們將甚感欣慰。 人工智慧將成為創造者的好工具 所以科學家、藝術家、音樂家和作家 能變得更有創造力。 人工智慧將作為分析工具與人共事，
人類將溫暖傾注于高同情性工作。 我們可以區分自己 通過獨特擅長的工作 兼具同情心和創造性， 充分利用我們獨一無二的頭腦和內心。 這就是： 人類與人工智慧共存的藍圖。
14:27
AI
is serendipity. It is here to liberate us from routine jobs, and it is here to
remind us what it is that makes us human. So let us choose to embrace AI and to
love one another.
14:27
人工智慧的發展是機緣巧合。
它的到來將把我們從常規工作中解放出來， 它的到來也提醒我們人因何為人。 所以讓我們選擇擁抱人工智慧並互相關愛。
14:40 Thank
you.
14:40 謝謝。
14:41 (Applause)
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